Haiti – Economy: Note from the BRH on economic activity (2nd quarter 2018-19)
In its note on economic activity in the second fiscal quarter of 2018-2019, the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH) emphasizes that at the level of the national economy “[…] Economic impact has been severely affected by the socio-political unrest of February 2019. The impact has been felt in the tertiary sector, with a particular pronounced effect on tourism. At the same time, a survey conducted by BRH's Currency and Economic Analysis Department of the United States of America said that it was 64% of bookings for the month of February 2019. […] “
For the secondary sector , BRH to increase in activity in the assembly sector in January. But notes that the suspension of activities in early February 2009 has been discontinued in the Caracol Industrial Park has suspended its investment projects https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-27347 -haiti-flash-koreans-in-caracol-transfer-their-extension-projects-in-dr.html
Regarding the agricultural sector, the information provided by the “Fews Net” network for the month of February 2019, indicate That many common in the departments of West, North, North-East, North-West, Central and Nippes are struggling with drought. This situation should affect the availability of the local food supply with potential adverse effects. In addition, the BRH reminds that
With regard to consumer prices, the BRH mentions that “[…] inflationary pressures intensified during the months of January 2019 and February 2019. The reduction in the supply of a At the same time, this situation can also be explained by the rise in monetary settlement, and its consequences in terms of the depreciation of the national currency and the increase in aggregate demand. Thus, annual inflation (base 100 in 2017-2018) was 17% in February https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-27278-haiti-economy-new-record-inflation-accelerates-and-reaches-17 -in-february-2019.html against 15.10% in December https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-26810-haiti-economy-inflation-crosses-the-bar-of-15.html […] The rate of exchange was 82.65 gourdes for one US dollar, an increase of 7. 07% compared to December 31, 2018.
[…] At the level of the public finances, the situation is characterized by a fall of the recepts related to particular to the slowing down of the economic activities following the socio- Political troubles of the month of February. At the same time, public spending is contained in the provisions of the Economic and Financial Governance Pact https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-26844-haiti-flash-the-state-signs-a-new -pact-of-economic-governance-with-the-brh.html […] “i>
The forecasts made by the Currency and Economic Analysis Department for the next three months are based on a downward trend in monthly inflation, the year-on-year inflation should continue to rise “[…] we have a monthly basis, the inflation rate should be 1.3% in March before stabilizing at + 1.1% for the months of April and May. At an annual rate, the inflation rate should reach 17.5% in March, and 17.6% for the months of April and May 2019 […] “
Among exogenous factors that can influence inflation, BRH quotes the impact of drought US Midwest Stresses that inflation may be affected by the rise in the world in Venezuela and the economic situation in Venezuela. […] […] Moreover, the uncertainties that still weigh on the business climate following the events of February and the expectation of the ratification of a new government could fuel negative expectations. Similarly, the vagaries of the setting of the minimum wage could affect business and investment, particularly in the export-oriented sub-contracting sector.
However, strict adherence to the Economic and Financial Governance Pact aimed at containing public spending within the limits of state resources could facilitate a reduction in monetary financing … “
Download the complete BRH report for the 2nd fiscal quarter 2018-2019 (PDF): https://www.haitilibre.com/docs/note_polmon2t19.pdf
The Note on Monetary Policy of the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH) Recent developments in the Haitian economy.
https://www.haitilibre. com / en / news-27278-haiti-economy-new-record-inflation-ACCELERATES-and-Reaches-17-in-february-2019.html
https: // w ww.haitilibre.com/en/news-26810-haiti-economy-inflation-crosses-the-bar-of-15.html
HL / HaitiLibre